Project White Horse Forum

Forty years ago, 3 March 1969, the first TOPGUN class  began “graduate level” fighter pilot education and training at Naval Air Station Miramar at the Fighter Weapons School. They were there because eagles screamed.

They were there because fighter pilots will not accept failure. In 1966 North Vietnamese fighter pilots (flying MiG 17 Frescos and MiG 21 Fishbeds) had accounted for only 3 percent of U.S. air losses. In the first three months of 1968, the MiG pilots now were responsible for 22 percent. The U.S. kill ratio was just about 2 to 1 (Air Force a little below, Navy, a little above) – as compared to the 10 to 1 of WWII and the Korean War – notably the worst ratio in the history of Naval aviation. Air crews were getting killed or becoming Hanoi Hilton residents, missiles and tactics developed to shoot down Russian bombers at long range were useless against an enemy intending to engage at close range coupled with U.S. rules of engagement prohibiting firing until positive ID obtained (which therefore put your aircraft inside the missile launch parameters.)

 Eagles screamed. Sometimes leaders listen and do what they’re supposed to do – pay attention to those who’ve been in the crucible, and then act to take care of their people. This time they did. Continue Reading »

Tags: combat training centers, Intelligence, Intersections, Medici Effect, resilient communities, TOPGUN

New York Times, 16 February, 2009— 

The homeland security secretary, Janet Napolitano, is re-evaluating the largest federal program for testing the country’s ability to respond to terrorist attacks, one of several Bush administration initiatives she has ordered to come under review.

PWH Chapter 1 (Part 1 of 2) The Constant Gardner http://www.projectwhitehorse.com/pdfs/B[1].%20PWH_Chapter1(1of2).pdf

(From Page 11) … Studies clearly indicate that highly trained (i.e., prepared) personnel exposed to a sudden crisis whose nature falls outside the scope of prior preparation commit grave errors of judgment and procedure. Current training and drills are focused on availability of resources, both human and physical, necessary for the management of, or the consequences of, a specific disaster type. These mostly pre-scripted drills fail to address crisis development, eliminate the Observation and Orientation stages of the Observe Orient Decide Act (OODA) Loop by pre-determining their characteristics, eliminate uncertainty, and therefore, bypass the essential element of critical command thinking.

Result: Level of readiness defined as instantaneous ability to respond to a suddenly arising major crisis based on locally available, un-prepositioned and un-mobilized countermeasure resources is either unchanged or decreased due to current flaws built into current philosophy of drills.

In this high-end crisis, where orientation to the problem is so essential, where potential is very high for decisions that could save or cause to be lost the most number of lives – decision makers have NOT been exposed to and are not aware of ingrained decision making biases, nor trained, or exercised in complex decision making in chaotic, uncertain environments.

The transnational and “total warfare” aspect of 21st Century conflict and the always possibility of “Category 5” natural disasters dictates a need for changes in how we educate and train, including exercise design and evaluation processes. The chaotic intent of terrorism and the complexity of the required multilevel, multi-agency response dictate that learning opportunities in complex environments must be provided.

RE-EVALUATION OF NATIONAL SECURITY ORDERED
Please read in part below or the complete article at: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/17/us/politics/17terror.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

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Tags: combat training centers, HLS, Intelligence, Intersections, Resilient Community, TOPGUN, TOPOFF, worst case disasters

After more than 37 years of uniform service to the U.S. army and our nation, I will spend the second half of my life committed to a new mission: Creating a “Culture of Preparedness’’ in America. Every effort I take, whether it is this new Web site, public speaking/lectures, fund-raisers, or the books I have written or will write, will be committed to this cause.

How you think about the future determines what you do in the future – victim or part of the “Culture of Preparedness.”

Please Visit General Honore’s Website: http://www.generalhonore.com/

Ed @PWH

Tags: HLS, Intelligence, Intersections, Medici Effect, resilient communities, Resilient Community, TOPGUN, TOPOFF, worst case disasters

We now move to Discussion Thread 3.

• >> Intelligence implications for a resilient community response force team in a low probability/high impact  worst case disaster environment:

• critical information – what, where and how
• education aimed at preventing “victimhood”
• planning on multiple levels
• being a responder not a victim
• building leaders AND followers – who, how 

By necessity that team will most likely include professionals (public safety and military – Guard and  Active Duty), private sector, and individual citizens or community organizations

If all would agree on the “team” response requirement and given the above – how do you inform, plan, and educate/train/learn across a team with few common linkages on a very practical basis?  How do you get ready for the “Black Swan?

It is easy to identify the problems, not too hard to come up with solutions, BUT the how and the doing is something else.

Invest in preparedness, not prediction…I will never get to know the unknown since, by definition, it is unknown. However, I can always guess how it might affect me, and I should base my decisions around that…you always control what you do, so make this your end.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb – The Black Swan; The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Tags: Add new tag, Culture of Preparedness, HLS, Intelligence, Intersections, Medici Effect, resilient communities, Team of Leaders (TOL), TOPOFF, worst case disasters

>>  Thread #2 Intelligence meaning and usage in natural disasters with Katrina as an event example

As we move further down the time line from September 11, 2001, multiple issues and events tend to push professional response organizations toward an “all hazards” approach. Those focused by agency or function speciffically on intelligence, anti-terrorism, counter-terrorism, gang response, emergency management, fire, or law enforcement can argue both sides of the question whether that makes us more or less capable in the event of crisis.

This post continues the comments on resilient communities and actionable intelligence from RC#25 related to thread #2 focused on what we can learn from the response to “Katrina.” It’s significance is that the comments address “intelligence” – generally thought of in terms of  acts by humans, either criminal or warfighter – as a function of needs in response to a non-human generated disaster.

The issue is not so much what is most efficient or effective (though obviously important), but rather what can be learned from an intersection of experience from Marines and firemen and cops and brain surgeons in light of unconventional crisis, unconventional responses.

Tags: combat training centers, HLS, Intelligence, Intersections, Medici Effect, resilient communities, Resilient Community, worst case disasters

A significant aspect of Project White Horse research, e-magazine editions, and forum/blog is search for and use of multiple/diverse experience, education, or discipline perspective with intent to gain better insight into decision making in the hyper complex, low probability – high impact type disaster situation.  In that regard and in preparation for the upcoming edition, several links are being examined for additions in the “Know Your World” column.

One of these http://www.groupintel.com/ was introduced to me by past PWH author, Lt. John Sullivan, Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. After joining the associated network, I asked several other PWH authors and participants with very wide and diverse areas of expertise to comment on GroupIntel in context of several issues provided below.  The depth of the discussion has been deemed worthy of publication for a broader audience and as a basis for further exploration within GroupIntel.

Given the number and size of comments, posts will be split along three discussion threads:

• 1. Value and use of intelligence as a function of local situation vs. a context of theater or grand tactical
• 2. Intelligence meaning and usage in natural disasters with Katrina as an event example
• 3. Intelligence implications (critical information, education for worst case response, planning, response) for a resilient community response force including by necessity professionals (military and civilians), private sector, and individual citizens or community organizations. Continue Reading »

“Let it be told to the future world…that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive…that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet it. (General George Washington)

America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children’s children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God’s grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.”    President Barack Obama, January 20, 2009

Resiliency: 1) the power to return to the original form, position, etc., after being bent, compressed, or stretched; elasticity;  2) ability to recover readily from illness, depression, adversity, or the like; buoyancy

Project White Horse 084640 focus for 2008 was “resilient communities” and the leadership requirements to so produce and sustain.  Throughout, has been the thread that survival in unconventional, hyper complex, worst case crisis requires not only professional first responders but, private sector and citizen alike.  Indeed, severe crisis levels the social status/wealth/political party/race playing field to a lowest common denominator – survival.  Reflecting again America’s birth, Ben Franklin’s words at the signing of the Declaration of Independence apply – “We must, indeed, all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately.”

Throughout this year I have been honored to have included inputs from General Russel Honore (United States Army, Retired) – Commander Joint Task Force Katrina on PWH.  Once again his words on Martin Luther King Day point to what it will require to be a resilient community – a resilient America:

I think in the spirit and soul of MLK , we should remind the leaders of this great nation that we have three “streets” in America not two… The third street in America is “Railroad Street.”… As we celebrate the great accomplishment that will occur tomorrow, let’s use the power of the message in the coming days and weeks, to shed light on the realities of life on “railroad street.”

Resiliency will most certainly require all three streets with common outlook, common interest, with mutual respect to work as one.  Please read General Honore’s words on Anderson Cooper’s AC360  http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2009/01/19/wall-street-main-street-and-then-that-other-world-railroad-street/

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Tags: combat training centers, HLS, Intelligence, Intersections, Medici Effect, resilient communities, TOPGUN, TOPOFF, worst case disasters

We do not need to debate who should lead FEMA after the 20th of January 2009. We have the man, the only person who has enough authority, command skill, talent and understanding of what is necessary to prevent the limping agency from a total disintegration right before the next hurricane season. General Russ Honoré is that man.

Please make your voice be heard: write to your congressman or congresswoman, send a message to Mr. Obama at www.change.gov , write to your local newspaper or TV station, forward this link.  Act and be an agent of change of which we have heard so much, and for which all of us have voted. For once, it is our unique chance to force selection to one of the most important posts in the nation of a man most of that nation knows and trusts, a man who proved himself, and who showed us all that, indeed, “it can be done,” and that we can start trusting FEMA again.  

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The Fall Edition of Project White Horse is on-line. It continues to address and expand the summer offerings on the PWH Forum focused on leadership in the preparedness AND readiness context for leaders, teams of leaders and “the led” – who must become an integrated participant if we as members of resilient communities intend to survive on our own terms when the “unconventional crises” arises. This edition centers on the continuing effort in the Forum but please note the rallying cry from one who understands the crisis and the leadership needs most clearly, General Russel Honore – Special Feature author. Continue Reading »